Final Box Office Is Now In....Not good...

Sad to see it didn't do well. I didn't expect it to break the bank or anything, but it was at least eye candy enough to go see it on the big screen.

I think it's still "salvageable". Connect the strings back to where they were (Jockey, Derelict, Eggs ect.) story-wise. The existing lore has enough for a "Lord of the Rings in Space".

You want mystery? Fine, use the Drukathi. Just dont waste them like the Engineers with an overabundance of undertone or "deeper meaning".

A few things to consider from a casual Alien fan, but also someone who has yet to see the movie. I've been following and studying box office grosses for awhile and I don't think there's a reason to hit the panic button just yet.

Alien: Covenant, according to BOM, had a budget of $97 million. That's certainly in its favor. The movie will only need to make somewhere between $194 million to $242 million worldwide to break even. (Somewhere between that gap covers all the advertising costs, theater cuts, distribution, overseas cuts, etc.) After that (and it's always safer to hope it gets past $242 million) it will start making profit.

The movie is currently at $117.8 million and doing quite well overseas. It has also yet to open in three other territories. One is China which isn't always dependable in terms of saving movies, (see: Power Rangers) but due to how massive it is, it's worth holding out hope for.

Another thing to consider is that this is still an R-rated movie. The idea that every R-rated franchise film will make the money that Logan and Deadpool did is an illusion. Those two movies are exceptions, not the rule. The fact that Covenant beat out a massively popular, commercial friendly, PG-13 Marvel film is a big win. If the movie has legs it could maintain a solid #3 position for Memorial Day weekend only falling to new releases Pirates of the Caribbean and Baywatch. If not it might slide to #4 due to the more family friendly nature of Guardians of the Galaxy for Memorial Day family goers.

Regardless, if we average lower than what Prometheus made on weekdays in 2012, by this Thursday Covenant should still be beating around the $50 million mark domestically. That would prime it to top $60 million after the weekend. Given how competitive summers are these days, that's really not bad for a nearly 40-year-old, R-rated franchise. Even if that sounds bad to some, consider that almost 70% of the $404 million from Prometheus's box office was made overseas.

Alien vs. Predator just isn't a very good comparison. It was a PG-13 movie released in a decade with far less competition. Considering it was an audience friendly event film, the movie merely did okay its first weekend. However, by Monday it had already slipped into irrelevance. In contrast, Prometheus did much better than Alien vs. Predator on its first Monday and had stronger legs going in to the following weekend--Especially considering it was an R-rated film.

It's too easy to play the comparison game without context. You have to consider all of the variables. Alien: Covenant isn't a bomb yet and it has plenty of time and territories to make up ground.

Again, this comes from a casual fan who has yet to even see the movie. (And as of this writing isn't entirely sure when or if he'll get to.)

G. H. (Gman) Jeez Gman... if a staff member is not going to support this film in the movie theater it means all hope is lost.

Seven paragraphs explaining why all hope is not lost and paragraph eight's mention of a single person struggling to see the film torpedoes the whole argument?

Man, if I knew I was this important I would've charged studios to let me watch their films long ago.

befor i start i want to say I did enjoy prometheus not initialy but after a bit it grew on me, covenant i feel the same m first viewing i was a bit disappointed mainly in the run time it needed to be longer and more developed, but after my second vieing i found i liked it quite a lot especially the setting/ visuals and creature design for the neo and the new protomorph. 

my biggest issue is with the AI and by extension Humanity being responsible for the "Alien".. that undermines the themes and concepts put forth by the first film and the prometheus film. if the bigchap or "alien" was intended to be the most literaly alien thing we could come across in the deepest parts of space, it illustrated the universal horror of the unknown void and how vast the galaxy was that in all our time in space the first interaction with this creature wiped out the whole crew and was completely "alien" to us. a beautiful creature of horror and un told history in the void, but if david is the creator than it reduces the threat to that of a small one off population of genetic frankenstein mutants not "aliens" while they still look alien the themes from the film and the purpose of there existence would be diminished. 

the ever presant and ancient dangor of the alien would now be gone.

that would be like changing the terminators from AI who took over and saying "oh it was really a human brain powering skynet" the movies theme of being carful when messing with AI" would vanish and now its just " dont put a human brain in control of war machines it may be evil."

While the concept of david creating his own life is cool and a dark story it could have been done by simply having him trying to recreate the xeno/ big chap from things he read of the engineers and puts his own spin on it making the neomorph. and the themes of both these films would stick just fine. 

but gain i liked both prequel films. my current ranking is:

Alien 1979, alien 3, covenant, aliens,prometheus, resurrected and I could care less for the AVP films. 

my only reason for aliens being lower in my list is how it reduced the horror and made the aliens into space bugs.

G. H. (Gman) I was just pulling your leg. However the more people watches the film, the more tarnished the Alien legacy will get. Have you seen the reviews on imdb? or the audience score at rotten tomatoes? (63% and dropping) The next installment, it it happens, will see at least a 40% decrease in box office returns.

Jeri.theSOB "that would be like changing the terminators from AI who took over and saying "oh it was really a human brain powering skynet" 

Exactly good analogy. That is way I don't care for the direction the Alien franchise is taking. It's like telling you: remember that alien that used to haunt your dreams?. It was not an alien after all. It is just just a genetic experiment created by a computer that even has your own DNA in it. And wherever you travel throughout the universe you will just find familiar stuff like wheat. And John Denver. Come on! Is there anything remotely "alien" left in all this at all?

joylitt exactly, its odd im finding im more frightened and interested in the neomorphs now since they are technically more "Alien" than the original since they were a product of the unknown back goo and its creation of mutant pods. 

joylitt

What really put me off was after 3 films, zero space battles where the Enterprise gets to strut.
Classic ST, space battles weren't every episode, but the Enterprise did quite well accounting for herself when they came up.

Nowadays it's all...well Fast & Furious in space (as you said) with a sitting-duck target as the main story vehicle.
They lost me when they killed the Enterprise, again.
In the ST reboot, the Kelvin vs Narada was a much better and longer space battle than anything Enterprise has seen.

As for ST Discovery, I'd rather pour ground glass and bleach in my eyes than watch it.

I wouldn't guess it will do well in the DVD sales unless there are extreme director cuts.  I won't buy it, but that's n=1.

i dont think Reboot is a good idea... as its going to make the Franchise a complete Farce...

They just need to learn from mistakes and as Peter Weyland Said... TRY HARDER....

The Problem with Alien Covenant..... let me begin...

*With Prometheus they started a path to explore the Space Jockey Race as a Giant Humanoid Race who created or played  a large role in the creation of Mankind...Very Bold but Risky Plot... and these Engineers had also been experimenting with Xenomorphs.. this was changed to exclude them and have it that they was experimenting with a Black Goo thats connected.

But alas... it had its flaws, and a number of fans was disapointed by it, for various reasons... some being that this was supposed to be a Alien Prequel thats just showing us the Black Goo is related, and Space Jockey and Engineer are Related and that the Derelict Event and LV-223 Outbreak are potentially related..  But then fans wanted Aliens, Eggs, Face Hugers and how they came to be, and also they wanted to know the Space Jockey Story as some are disapointed that the Space Jockey is a Engineer.

Considering Anticipation for Alien 5 was more than Prometheus 2 they went back to change the Plot to give Fans a more Alieny Movie...   Fans did not like Engineers, or Shaw and her Questions... that ok we can just brush them under the Carpet... and give them the Xenomorph.

AT THIS POINT....

Indeed they realized Prometheus made a few mistakes, but they could hardly Reboot a Prequel Franchise... partly because doing so would make RIDLEY SCOTT look like a Fool and be like admitting Prometheus was a Total Failure... Ridley Scott was a big fan of David 8 and that Story Arc... if they then did a complete Re-boot..  and a more Spaights Alien Engineers, maybe change the Engineers a bit... or even do a Prequel that does not touch upon Prometheus... but will involve Xenomorphs.. you can bet Ridley would still want to introduce a Synthetic played by Fassbender with the Same Story ARC.

But why do that, when instead they can try and expand upon Davids Arc from Prometheus...

Here is where the Problem Lies... at its Roots.. the Problem was..

*Trying to better the Characters and bring back more of a Alien Character vibe, meant the Slow Burn First Act, rather than how fast paced Prometheus was from when we get to David on the ship waking the Prometheus crew right to when they set down into the Temple....  So they wanted a more slower build up like Alien...

*This with the Neomorphs was a good starting point but these all took up a lot of the movie...

*Brings us to David, they could not completely ignore Prometheus... they had to do a bit to satisfy Prometheus fans a little and cover some of what David was doing there... Due to the Slow Build up and Neomorph Scenes taking up a lot of the movie and then needing to explore and bring in TWO Xenomorph Scenes, meant they had to rush the Prometheus connections and Davids Arc a bit...

*Leads us to the Xenomorph, and again due to the limited time for the movie, and how they had the last Xeno encounter on the ship planned... means they did not have enough time to show-case the Xenomorph scenes to do them any justice.. they had to be rushed and also have a faster Gestation/Growth Rate so they could get the 3rd act done within a movie that would fit 2.5 hours maximum...  a slower Gestation Rate would mean they would have to explain Oram disappearing for hours.. and then cover some other Plot Points to cover what Daniels and Co do while this is going on... which again could have added a good 15 minutes to the movie.

*Ultimately FOX also needed the movie to be about 2 hours and so scenes had to be cut and omitted, i think the Full Cut could have potentially been 2hrs 22 minutes.  As it seems about 20 minutes extra footage and extended scenes had been done.

THE MOVIE ULTIMATELY...

Was trying to do too much within a limited time, the movie needed 3 hours, but then  FOX want to make $$$ and know that it would be hard to get all but the devoted Franchise Fanbase to sit and watch a 3 hour movie.

What we had was ultimately not doing Prometheus or Alien a proper justice... simply because to do so required each of those elements needing a good 20-30 minutes extra each.

I will also add that the timing of the movie was off, as far as release date...  coming out when GOTG2 is out means its hardly going to make Number 1, but then you have to think when else would it had been wise to release it?

I feel that Alien Covenant really needed a bigger Budget, does FOX not have confidence in the Franchise or Ridley Scott?  Reports are the Budget was $97M some up to $111M when you consider with inflation the $130M Prometheus would be $142M now.

I think Alien Covenant could have benefited from a extra $50M and a extra 3-4 Months Production and then a extra 40 minutes Screen time to do it justice..

We can only hope this is a Mistake FOX Realize and that they allow for a bigger Budget next time where they can invest more in Practical Effects or better CGI.

Right now Alien Covenant is doing 40% less than Prometheus after the same time on the Big Screen, but we cant Judge how well the movie will do until about 2 weeks time... right now it looks like its heading for a 3rd less than Prometheus as far as Box Office but we have to consider Prometheus has a 3rd larger Budget.

I think ideally they would hope it makes back 300% like Prometheus, but as long as it makes 250% that would be considered a good return but a disappointment as i think they hoped it would do better.

A Sequel has been given the Green Light.... i do think if Alien Covenant fails to make 200% it could delay a sequel as they would then have to Ponder Every Criticism of the movie because if they made another movie and that failed to do as well as they would hope.. i feel this would spell DEATH to the Franchise.

"Sometimes to create, one must destroy".  I think a reboot is needed,  with fresh blood.  distroy the old guard and start over.  But I am still midway through the five stages of grief.

Not only was Ripley right about the beast being cooked, but they discarded the most compelling aspect of these prequel films in the engineers. They compounded the problem and shot themselves in the foot. Hastily forcing the xenomorph into this film only did it a disservice. 

You reap what you sow. The numbers don't lie. The majority did not want to see another mind-numbing stalk-and-kill sci-fi monster movie with the same old tired ending of every other alien film.

BigDave I have read so much crazy stuff in the analysis of the box office reports. Such as general audience didn't know how this movie was related to Alien, that some though this was related to Interstellar because of the soundtrack (!!!) And if the audience is so confused, isn't Covenant making it worse?

I think if you read many, many comments by viewers of the film on YouTube and in review sections, that's EXACTLY what they want. They don't want a pretentious David film. They want to be thrilled and not preached to. This franchise is JAWS, in space, no matter how you want to try to elevate it. Make a film called DAVID and THE ENGINEERS if that's what you think is worthwhile and artsy. You can't do both, and this film and Prometheus have proved it. 

joylitt,
The criticisms I've heard aren't kind, but the quantifying of non-critic opinions is never something I take in to account, especially this early on. Sure 63% claim they like it, but the average rating of that 63% is still 3.5/5, (70%) which is about average and pretty in-line with Prometheus. (3.6/5 or 72%) And imdb I largely can't take seriously anymore--That place has been a breeding ground for mindless discourse since 2000.

There's something called a vocal minority that, in a lot of cases, (particularly large fandoms) care to harass and quantify their opinions more than those who enjoy a particular movie, music, etc. So I don't put a lot of stock in it.

The topic here, however, is about the box office and even with taking those quantified opinions in to account, there's no evidence to suggest Covenant will outright bomb. And there's especially nothing to suggest box office for a sequel would drop a whopping 40%--Especially when we have no clue what kind of release date, year of competition and ad campaign it will have. (You really expect a sequel to only open with $14 million? [A 40% drop] Even bigger flops do better than that.) Opinions can help or hurt, but at the same time only do so much. See: Transformers franchise.

G. H. (Gman) Actually 63% of the audience like it on rottentomatoes, which is low nonetheless. 68% liked Prometheus. And on imdb the movie scores 6.9 while Prometheus gets a 7.

It won't be a bomb. It will just show a sharp decline and I predict Ridley will pass on the sequel to someone else.

@joylitt  If you watched that link, it's even more likely he might just pass out lol

joylitt,
Yeah, that was a bad typo. 63% may have liked it and 68% may have liked Prometheus, but the overall average score is still more favorable and relatively average. The percentages of these things really can throw off perception of how a movie is received. If we were to get technical, the average score is a stronger indicator than what RT tries to tell us is good or bad.

Either way, that doesn't exactly indicate poor box office--The topic at hand.

G. H. (Gman) Well what I really think is that 20th Century Fox better start making some polls to find out how what percentage of the audience will go to the theater just to see Michael Fassbender and his incredible acting.

Considering they're courting him hardcore to be in the next X-Men film, they clearly don't care to poll anyone.

The ratings have been dropping somewhat...

What i have noticed is the first rating and reviews could be influenced by the press and general public who would have seen the movie for what it is...

Say if you have never seen a Alien movie before.., so it had a Build Up Story, Action, Gore a bit of Horror.. just no where near as much Action as Aliens, Horror of Alien or Philosophical themes of Prometheus.

A lot of Criticism seems to come in 3 forms..

1) Prometheus fans who was disappointed at the disservice, after knowing the Bold Plot to discover more about the Engineers, their Agenda and what Horrors they had created.

2) Alien Fans... who some may liked Prometheus, some maybe not... but they see this movie as showing too much Alien Xenomorphs in some rushed way and some disappointing CGI and also messing about with what they see as Alien Lore (Space Jockey, Eggs Derelict and being Ancient) different Chest Buster and its super fast Growth Rate etc.

3) Aliens Fans which can include Fanboys who just like to see the Xenomorph in Action for the love of the Beast.. and those who liked Aliens but not the others that followed.. for them i think they would have wanted to see more screen time to the Classic Alien, and maybe felt other parts took the movie a bit away from the Xenomorph.

@joylitt

Thats exactly a point i have made a few times, even prior to AC and also in regards to Prometheus....

There are a number of types of Alien Fans... some like Aliens some dont, some like Prometheus some dont, its a mixed bag as far as what each real hardcore Fan like and dislike...

But then you have Casual Sci-Fi Fans and then the Casual Audience and it seems the movie was Marketed and made to attract these guys.... knowing that Alien Fans would see it regardless.

If they was to give a true Alien Fanbase movie that would please all, then they needed a extra Hour so a 3 hour movie and a bigger Budget..

No way FOX would put up a extra $50-70M and then a 3 hour movie just to know that Alien/Aliens and Prometheus fans would come and see the movie... but none Hardcore Alien fans would just simply not sit through it for that long.

This is why we had a short movie length compared to what was needed... and also looks like good 20 mins had been cut anyway...

ALIENS ran 2 hours and 34 minutes

Covenant runs 2 hours and 3 minutes.

They had sense enough in ALIENS to spend a significant amount of time letting the audience familiarize themselves with the cast before all hell broke loose, unlike COVENANT.

Those 25 minutes cut out might have made a lot of difference and still would have been shorter than ALIENS.

Indeed and Aliens had some parts cut too, so the Theatrical and None Extended versions was 2hr 17 Minute but Can you imagine before release in 1986 FOX wanted to shave another 15 minutes of that.

What would you cut down... and how would that effect the movie.

Alien also had a simply Plot... Alien Covenant had to kind of deal with 3 Elements... so it really needed a extra 30 min at least.

I liked the ALIENS directors cut at times (the auto machine gun thing)....but at others, not so much. I felt seeing Newt's parents get killed diluted finding her on the planet as in the regular cut .

I would have cut the whole David intro, it was complete fluff. I would have started it inside the ship, like the original ALIEN. How much better a testament that this time they really WERE going back to their roots? 

I would have kept the footage I've seen that at least shows they TRIED to let us learn a bit about the characters shown in the previews. And if there was any footage of the two who are later victims in the shower, showing that they were indeed a couple, I could stand seeing that brought out a bit more early on if it's there. Otherwise it was like....who are those guys??

I would hacked that flute sequence either in half or eliminated the show stopping, pace killing bit entirely. One sentence was all they needed..."You can perform, but not create" ....done. Keep moving.

And for the love of all that is holy I would have cut that Spielberg-esque laughable scene with the baby alien imitating David's moves...the audience laughed for heaven's sake.

I would have extended the end to include the scenes of Daniels asking mother "WHERE IS IT?" with Mother answering "4 meters...above you.." Another nice recall of ALIENS...more subtle than the downright lift of the airlock sequence.

On the plus side, I for one thought the first action scene on the planet was masterfully done. I don't care how many people think think the humans acted foolishly, shooting into things that blew up the ship, etc, I found it frightening and totally suspenseful, masterfully shot and edited. The movie needed more scenes with that kind of intensity, and that of the initial explosion in the ship. Excellent sequences. It just seemed to go downhill after those.

Ironically I think it might be in a good place... And almost exactly were I expected out to go.  Low enough to get a kick up the backside but not too low as to die. Wow $33 million less budget than Prometheus eeek. But yes unfortunately what I expected after seeing Prometheus not what I hoped for.